News Today

There were a number of races and issues that were voted on yesterday. Let’s take a look at some of the more intriguing races and results.

NY-23 Special Election - Despite the best efforts of conservative star-power like Tim Pawlenty, Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck, voters in this district (A Republican lock since the Civil War) chose Democrat Bill Owens over the Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. Still, it would be wrong to label this a defeat for the hard-right Tea Party movement. They had enough influence to knock G.O.P. candidate Dede Scozzafava out of the race and brought some much needed national attention to their movement.

New York Mayor - After running the most expensive self-financed campaign ever, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg won an unexpectedly tight race Tuesday night with long-shot challenger City Comptroller William Thompson Jr.

Virginia - Republican Bob McDonnell, in a replay of Virginia’s Attorney General race four years earlier, cruised to an easy victory over Democrat Creigh Deeds in the Virginia governor’s race. “One of the reasons we were so successful is we had independents and Democrats come over to our side,” said McDonnell, in a quote that sounds eerily similar to our president. “For those of you who did not support me, I say give me a chance to earn your trust.”

New Jersey - Chris Christie became the first Republican to win statewide in New Jersey in more than a decade by ousting the Democrat incumbent Jon Corzine. Christie was aided by a poor showing from independent candidate Chris Daggett. Despite polling as high as 20 percent in October, Daggett, a former Republican and EPA official, was unable to break double digits at the polls.

Maine - Voters in this state chose to repeal a state law granting same-sex couples the right to marry, marking a defeat for gay rights activists who were hoping the state would become the first to approve gay marriage at the polls. Currently Iowa, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and Connecticut are the only states to allow same-sex marriage.

Ohio - Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland and Toledo will be building Las Vegas-style casinos after voters in the buckeye state passed Issue 3. This was the fifth statewide vote on the issue since 1990, but with state unemployment hovering around 10% voters said yes to the promise of 34,000 new jobs, $1 billion in capital investment, and $651 million a year in tax revenues for local governments and school districts.

Sources:
http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/election/ohioans-approve-casinos-for-4-cities-382796.html
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29119.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/04/AR2009110402115.html?hpid=topnews
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29103.html
http://www.theweek.com/article/index/102397/Tea_Party_backlash_in_NY

Regardless of what happens at the polls today in NY-23, one thing is clear. The G.O.P. has a big red problem, one that is likely to get even bigger.

Still think this is astro-turf Nancy Pelosi?

Ask Dede Scozzafava if she thinks it’s not a legitimate grassroots campaign. At the beginning of the month Scozzafava held a 7-point lead over Democrat Bill Owens. Fast forward to today and Scozzafava, the G.O.P. candidate picked for NY-23, has already bowed out of the race and Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman holds a slim lead over Owens in polls, 36 percent to 35 percent.

Inspired by their NY-23 victory, conservatives and tea party activists have already set their sights on some other G.O.P. Senate recruits like Gov. Charlie Crist in Florida, former Rep. Rob Simmons in Connecticut, Rep. Mark Kirk in Illinois and even GOP incumbents like Utah Sen. Bob Bennett.

“I would say it’s the tip of the spear,” said Dick Armey, the former GOP House majority leader who now serves as chairman of Freedom Works, an organization that has been closely aligned with the tea party movement. “We are the biggest source of energy in American politics today.”

NY-23 has brought up some intriguing questions. What will the long-term impact of this conservative infighting be? Could this be the fall of the Republican Party? Are we about to enter a new era in American politics?

Some analysts think so, and it will be interesting to see how this plays out. In states from California to Connecticut the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is choosing candidates who appear at first glance to be strong general election prospects in their districts. Nevertheless these candidates are meeting tough resistance from grass-roots level from activists who believe in supporting the conservative cause, even if it means going against the party nominee.

“New York 23, on some scale, is the first battle of a larger internal Republican debate over how to define the party,” said former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, a conservative who is challenging Crist for the Senate nomination. “They want us to vote for their candidates, but they don’t want us to run for office.”

Sources:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/politics3237585;_ylt=AlPTu_LeTcdo21OVPHmfpFBh24cA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2ajVuNTVrBHBvcwM0BHNlYwN5bi1yLWItbGVmdARzbGsDLXJlYWRpbmdlbGVj
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_what_s_at_stake
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20091103/pl_politico/29057

As Scotty says, Halloween is over, and it’s time to get back to work.

It was a pretty active weekend too, which I would say calls for a quick round of this and that…

The FBI released the 2004 interview summary of Dick Cheney’s answers in the Valerie Plame criminal investigation. Apparently the interview contained 72 instances where Cheney “could not recall” the answer and one instance where he refused to answer altogether.

The G.O.P. is getting ready to release a health care bill, which will focus on lowering costs rather than expanding coverage. “If you drive down costs, you can expand access,” said House Minority Leader John Boehner on Monday. No word yet on cost.

One of my favorite stories got that much more interesting on Saturday when Dede Scozzafava decided to drop out of New York’s 23rd district special congressional election. What will the long-term implications of this race be?

It will be interesting to see how all of tomorrow’s elections play out.

President Barack Obama gave Afghan President Hamid Karzai a cold congratulations on Saturday, warning Karzai that America needs to see an improvement on corruption in the Afghan government. “The proof is not going to be in words,” said Obama. “It’s going to be in deeds.”

And Dylan Ratigan of the Huffington Post poses a very intriguing question: Why keep Timothy Geithner?

Another third party candidate is poised to make a legitimate run in an upcoming special election. Meet Doug Hoffman, a Conservative Party candidate who has been gaining support in his campaign to take over the New York House seat left vacant by the resignation of Republican Representative John McHugh.

The support for Hoffman isn’t just some astro-turf nonsense either. It’s even bigger than a legitimate grassroots uprising. In a surprising coup, many of the Republican Party’s most vocal leaders are also backing the Conservative Party candidate, despite the fact that the G.O.P. already has a candidate in the race, Dede Scozzafava.

On Friday former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum became the latest in a growing list of G.O.P. leaders to endorse Hoffman. That list includes former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, former House Majority Leader Dick Armey, Minnesota Rep. Michelle Bachmann, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, and former presidential candidate Steve Forbes.

To these conservatives Scozzafava has way too many strikes. A state assembly woman who supports gay marriage rights, abortion rights and is in close with labor?

Palin’s endorsement came on Thursday, and the former governor said that Hoffman “stands for the principles that all Republicans should share” in a statement about her decision. By the way, Hoffman’s campaign reported over $100,000 in campaign donations in the 24 hours following her endorsement.

Still, not all Republican Party leaders are convinced of Hoffman’s credentials, or that it’s a good idea for G.O.P. members to undercut one of their own. Newt Gingrich, who endorsed Scozzafava, offered these grim words of advice for conservatives — “if you seek to be a perfect minority, you’ll remain a minority.”

. . .

In keeping with the independent theme of the post, Mark Blumenthal of the National Journal had a very interesting article about New Jersey’s Independent gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett. In his article Blumenthal alluded to a “perfect storm” of sorts that Daggett appears to have going for him.

From the article:

“Those who follow politics are familiar with a pattern, evident mostly in primary elections, in which two front-running candidates will battle for months, often with an acrimonious exchange of negative advertising, only to be overtaken by a little-known third candidate who surges from single digits in the campaign’s final weeks.

In almost every case, three dynamics facilitate the also-ran’s rise: Strong performances in campaign debates and endorsements from prominent newspapers boost their name recognition, while a last-minute surge in the polls helps convince voters that the long shot really can win.”

A closer look at New Jersey’s race reveals that Daggett’s campaign is following that pattern. Daggett has been the clear winner in both debates, he’s already won the endorsement of the Newark Star-Ledger and a Thursday Rutgers-Eagleton Poll showed 39% of voters going for Corzine, 36% for Christie and 20 percent for independent Chris Daggett.

All this being said, it’s undeniable that history is against him. Out of the 365 governors to take office since 1970, only five have claimed a political party affiliation other than Democrat or Republican.

Sources:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/yet_another_fight_over_party_i.php
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/mp_20091023_1421.php

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1009/28671.html
http://daggettforgovernor.com/wordpress/

While it’s not an exact science by any means, one pretty good indicator of how an election cycle is going to turn out comes from watching the campaign contributions taken in by each side.

And if September’s fundraising totals are an indication of how the 2010 elections will turn out, the Republican party is in for another bad defeat at the polls.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) raised $7.05 million in September, its second-highest monthly total this year. The DCCC has now put away over $14.7 million in funds for the 2010 midterms.

On the other side of the aisle the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) raised $3.4 million for the month giving them $4.3 million cash-on-hand (with over $2 million in unpaid debt).

There are some positives for the G.O.P. to take away. September was the fourth straight month that the NRCC was able to top the three million dollar mark, and the $4.3 million cash-on-hand is the NRCC’s highest total since March.

Still, the latest numbers have to be troubling to the NRCC. The Democrats’ House campaign arm more than doubled the fundraising performance of their Republican counterparts, and the Democrats’ Senate campaign arm outraised its GOP counterpart $5.9 to $3.2 million in September.

Source:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1009/DCCC_doubles_up_NRCCs_Sept_fundraising.html?showall#

I wrote a few weeks earlier about how several third party candidates are in a position to make an impact in several elections. Sure enough, the New Jersey gubernatorial race is turning out to be very heated, and not because of the Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine or his Republican challenger Chris Christie.

Instead, most of the buzz is about Chris Daggett, a centrist independent candidate who with just 20 days to go in the race is polling in double-digits and is poised to make a major impact on the outcome of the election. A Fairleigh Dickinson University survey last week showed Daggett capturing 17 percent of the vote. That was enough to put Corzine ahead of Christie 38 percent to 37 percent.

The recent poll numbers create a dilemna for Christie. By attacking Daggett Christie is also elevating him, legitimizing his candidate and offering him free publicity. Ignoring Daggett altogether could be an even worse decision.

On Wednesday the Republican Governors Association (RGA) launched a series of radio and television ads attacking Daggett. “Chris Daggett, like Corzine, only worse,” says the TV advertisement.

“By Election Day, it will be abundantly clear to New Jerseyans that voting for Chris Daggett is the same as voting for Jon Corzine,” said the Republican Governors Association spokesman Mike Schrimpf.

Whatever Christie’s campaign decides to do, one thing is clear here. The people of New Jersey, much like people across the nation, are fed up on the status-quo. They want a change in the way that politics are run in this country, and they are willing to look outside of Democrat and Republican candidates to achieve that change.

“Daggett’s election would send shock waves through New Jersey’s ossified political system,” The Star-Ledger editorial board, New Jersey’s largest newspaper, wrote over the weekend after endorsing Daggett, “and, we believe, provide a start in a new direction.”

Sources:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1009/28205.html#
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1009/28322_Page2.html#

In what has become one of the most emotionally charged and also increasingly polarized political landscapes, it’s refreshing to hear a story like this one.

Republican Zach Wamp already calls Bart Stupak one of his best friends. Now he can call him a campaign contributor as well. Stupak, a Michigan Democrat, gave $2,500 to Wamp’s Tennessee gubernatorial campaign in September.

“He’d be a great governor,” said Stupak of his choice to donate. “If he’s going to run, it’s Tennessee’s gain and our loss.”

This isn’t the first time Stupak has crossed the aisle to give a campaign contribution. He also donated to Republican Rep. Wayne T. Gilchrest’s unsuccessful bid for re-election in 2008.

“Some things are more important than party,” Wamp said. “We are absolutely best friends.”

Wamp and Stupak have both lived at a townhouse on C Street in Southeast Washington. While the house and its prayer group have garnered a good deal of controversy in recent months (Senator John Ensign is also a member of the house), its members say that it serves as an important support mechanism for politicians because it enables them to confide in peers.

Sources:
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2009/07/21/c_street/
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1009/28301.html#

A couple things to go over real quick…

First off sorry I haven’t posted this weekend, it’s been quite an eventful week for news, especially in the world of foreign policy. I plan on catching up with that later. Secondly, it may have already come to your attention that comments are not working. Today.com is trying to work out a solution to the problem and hopefully comments will be back up and running soon.

Okay. Here’s a couple items of interest for you guys…

A Declaration of Independents, from Politico - Neat little story about some of the independent party governor candidates that are looking to make an impact in the next election.

This Iran missile thing could get ugly, real quick.

Military considers lifting ban on women serving in submarines.

Recovery.gov, the website promised by President Barack Obama to track the stimulus dollars, is up and running.

Alright, that’s all for now, I’ll try to get something else up here later tonight.

The always colorful Jim Traficant, a former Ohio Representative who was released earlier this month after a 7-year stint in federal prison on corruption charges, had some interesting things to say earlier today on MSNBC’s Hardball with Chris Matthews.

Traficant’s rant (while not the worst rant of the day) touched on everything from the IRS, and anti-tax tea parties to the “big whorehouse” that is the U.S. Capitol.

“Stimulate this,” Traficant said. “That’s what I’m saying.”

Traficant wasn’t all rants and raves though. In the interview Traficant advocated replacing the income tax with a 25 percent fair tax retail sales tax. This is a controversial idea that has grown a lot of traction recently, even with other bloggers here on today.com.

“I want to get the IRS, kick them in the crotch real good,” he said.

Traficant also made an apology over a statement he said in the House of Representatives years ago.

“Years ago on the House floor on a foreign aid debate, I called the members of the House of Representatives a bunch of political prostitutes,” he said. “They demanded my words be stricken. They jumped up like 100 TV evangelists.”

“I want to apologize to all the hookers in America for having associated them with the United States House of Representatives,” he continued. “Yeah, I think it is a big whorehouse and they better start taking care of America and stop worrying about the Middle East and worry about the Midwest.”

When questioned by Matthews Traficant didn’t rule out the possibility of another run in politics either.

“I would have to look at the variables on it,” he explained. “I don’t know what I’m going to do. I may run.”

Source:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27505.html#

Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard professor, consumer advocate and head of the committee charged with overseeing the Wall Street bailout funds has come up as a possible candidate to take the senate seat vacated from the death of Massachusetts Senator Edward Kennedy.

Warren simply repeated “I have a job” during an interview on Thursday on Fox Business, where she was asked several times if she’d rule out accepting an appointment to the position.

“Warren would be a pitch-perfect candidate,” wrote Ethan Porter on True/Slant. “The values that drive her public career are the same values that drove Kennedy’s.”

Warren’s credentials are pretty strong. Besides being a Harvard professor, Warren has been one of the most outspoken voices of opposition to Wall Street’s greedy antics. As a watchdog for the Wall Street bailout, Warren has been relentless (though too often unsuccessful) in hounding both the Treasury Department and the various financial institutions to explain where the taxpayer money was being spent.

“Throughout the financial crisis, she has been the voice of the common person in policy debates,” said Porter. “We urgently need her–and what she represents–in the Senate.”

Along with her work with the T.A.R.P. funds Warren has also proposed and designed a Financial Product Safety Commission (FPSC) that would place restrictions on the type of risky financial products that led to the 2008 economic collapse. Despite fierce opposition from the banking industry the FPSC has been renamed the Consumer Financial Protection Agency and will be due for a vote in the House Financial Services Committee in the fall.

In a congress that earlier this year was described by Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) as being owned by the banks, Warren’s voice would be a welcome change and her nomination would be a smart move for the Democrats.

Sources:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/18/elizabeth-warren-for-sena_n_291804.html
http://trueslant.com/ethanporter/2009/09/16/draft-liz-warren-for-kennedys-seat/
http://www.democracyjournal.org/article.php?ID=6528